Jan HatziusManaging Director, Chief Economist, Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs
“Our outlook for the global economy in 2012 and 2013 is slower growth than the last couple of years—about 3% global GDP growth in 2012—with quite a bit of differentiation between the strongest performers and the weakest performers.”
- For the world economy as a whole, our forecast for real GDP growth in 2012 is 3.2% and 4.1% for 2013.
- We expect growth to slow in the US, although we still do not expect a recession.
- We have made the biggest adjustment to our 2012 forecasts in the Euro area, where we now expect a deeper recession and only gradual stabilization late in 2012. But this is conditional on major policy changes in the region, probably involving a partial ‘mutualization’ of the existing debt stock supported by the European Central Bank.
- In the emerging world outside Europe, and especially in China, we expect the spillovers to be smaller, although a key risk to this forecast lies in more substantial disruptions to global capital flows.